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Chi_Mangetsu mulattobutts
SB 1070 Arizona Immigration LawSince the old Immigration thread got locked and this whole matter is officially... official, I thought I'd share this gem to start it off.

I got this cheerful chain letter earlier today:
Subject: Mexico is angry!?

MEXICO IS ANGRY!

Three cheers for Arizona

The shoe is on the other foot and the Mexi...
#1  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Ditto
142 REPLIES Watch  |  Sort by Mod · Date
Mongopwn
In reply to bobomonkey, #89:
Your tomato now costs $10 a piece because the guy who picks it is ow making (lets say) $7 an hour. The guy who picks tomatoes gets paid $7 an hour so the guy who was getting $7 an hour needs to be paid more or he starts looking for a place where he is compensated for his skills.

So a single tomato still costs a third more than the workers average wage? Brilliant.
#91  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Ditto
bobomonkey
In reply to Mongopwn, #91:

They're arbitrary numbers. My 7 and his 10 are completely artificial numbers. I highly doubt that a single tomato would cost $10 an hour even if we were paying $10 an hour for a guy to pick tomatoes. The math just doesn't work. It takes a five year old (my own cousin) about 10 minutes to pick about 10 tomatoes....at $10 an hour, each of those tomatoes would have a labor cost of (treating this person like a full fledged employee i.e. labor cost is roughly $15 an hour) .25 each. Throw 40 of them in a box that cost a dollar and your price is $.28 each. For the sake of including it, double the price and add 15% (way overkill) to cover the farmers overhead and growing costs and you have $.64 per tomato. To get it to your grocer, lets throw a shitty shipping rate of $50 a box and your tomato is now just around $1.90 apiece...we can give the grocer a real nice profit margin (10%) and your tomato now costs $2.09 apiece.

And it still sucks to be a no-skill worker, it's never going to be an ideal life...get over it. Even the guy working minimum wage today finds a way to pay for luxuries and then bitch about not having enough money to pay the bills.
#92  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
Mongopwn
In reply to bobomonkey, #92:

I think you're just talking out your ass now.
#93  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Ditto
dark54555 Site Admin
In reply to Mongopwn, #93:

Why does Chi get to toss out arbitrary numbers and get a pass, but Bobo does not?
#94  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Ditto
bobomonkey
In reply to Mongopwn, #93:

I more wrote that to show what items really won't change, and I left a few out. I'm not in the harvesting business to know the full cost after labor to a tomato. If my local grocery is any basis, I paid 2.99 a lb for tomatoes on the vine (you pay a premium for that) last night. I got 4 tomatoes roughly 1/4 to 1/3 lb each ($3.43 total). That's roughly $.86 a tomato. Even if I assume the guy picking that tomato is making nothing for his work today, using 60 tomatoes an hour at $10 an hour as a picking rate only adds 28 cents to the price of a tomato....a 133% factor, not the 1163% factor proposed by Chi.

Would I pay an extra $28 for a tomato if it made it so a legal resident of this country could do a job that is currently often going to illegals? Hell yes.
#95  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
poon_dawg
I fucking hate raw tomatoes. Sorry, but I couldn't stop thinking about that while reading the conversation above.
#96  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Funny
Mongopwn
In reply to dark54555, #94:

Because I'm an asshole.

You haven't figured that out yet?
#97  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Funny
NaraVara Forum Mod
Would I pay an extra $28 for a tomato if it made it so a legal resident of this country could do a job that is currently often going to illegals? Hell yes.


You might pay it ONCE. But you are delusional if you think that's not going to affect your long-term consumption patters.
#99  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 4 Ditto
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to bobomonkey, #95:

No see, it doesn't work that way.




If you increase price, demand will fall.

If the shortage of labor (yes, shortage) will drive up the price of tomatoes by 100%, fewer people will buy tomatoes. Consequently, many tomato farmers will go out of business, and they won't be hiring anyone, much less Americans at whatever the going rate it is for an American to pick tomatoes.

That is, or they will do one of the two following
1. They will shift to more machine intensive production, which will also not add significant numbers of jobs.

2. They will move their tomato production to Mexico, and simply import the tomatos rather than importing the workers. This will doubly hurt America because not only will the jobs not come, if they were growing here in the first place it's probably the best place to grow the tomatos. Growing them in mexico may well be suboptimal. Further, it increases the trade imbalance.
#100  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Zing!
Mongopwn
In reply to bobomonkey, #95:

Would I pay an extra $28 for a tomato if it made it so a legal resident of this country could do a job that is currently often going to illegals? Hell yes.

I hope you go broke that way.
#101  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Funny
bobomonkey
In reply to BigBen, #100:

Yes, if you increase price demand will fall, but if you increase wages it is offset. If the guy I'm paying to pick tomatoes spend the majority of his paycheck in my town rather than sending it back to Zacatecas, it helps my neighbor's bottom line. If the guy I hire isn't claiming 10 dependents and actually pays income tax, it helps our country. There are far more benefits to this than just giving an American a job that an illegal is filling.

1. Machines are built by someone, maintained by someone, etc... Parts are produced, raw materials obtained...there are still jobs. If you're arguing against automation, get in line with the buggy-whip manufacturers. Plus, some foods just can't be machine picked with the machines we have. You're asking for someone to come up with a way that isn't marginally more expensive than using illegals to do the work in the first place when they haven't been able to do so to date. Plus you're asking a farmer to shell out a substantial investment rather than small incremental price increases that they can pass on.

2. Most of the harvesting that is done by illegals is done here because it doesn't make sense to do it and import food. I'm sticking tomatoes because they are grown locally for a good reason. Like most hand-harvested produce, perishability, ease of damage, shipping costs, etc... all play into whether you can outsource a food product. Yes, I can get Mexican hot-house tomatoes in February....they cost me quite a bit more too. What foods generally get exported? Generally it's the ones that are machine harvested already
#102  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to bobomonkey, #102:

That's just plain poorly reasoned economics.

I'll explain when I actually have time to write a decent post.
#103  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
bobomonkey
In reply to BigBen, #103:

Food isn't a luxury, if we were dealing with a product where there was a comparable cheap alternative (i.e. if you make pencils more expensive than pens, more people will use pens) that doesn't already exist, yeah it doesn't work. But you're looking at markets where the alternatives are more expensive and as long as the increase in labor cost is less than the cost to find another source or automate, it's going to go to labor. And like I said, even if it gets automated, someone in the US who's money stays in the US is probably going to have to build, maintain, install, etc....the equipment if the farmer automates.

Plus, that supply/demand curve works on the labor market too. If I have a choice between earning $5 an hour shoveling shit or I can earn at $5 an hour picking peaches, I'm probably going to pick peaches. Now the guy I was shoveling shit for still needs his shit shoveled and now has to find a replacement, that replacement comes from one of 2 places, another low skill worker taken from his other job or someone who was unemployed, hell, I may have to raise my rates so my new shit shoveler doesn't go pick peaches too because his peaches now cost $1.05 instead of $1, and he needs to make a little more money to cover his bills.

If it's the unemployed guy, he now pays his bills, buys shit here, pays his taxes, maybe covers his child support bills, doesn't rob a store, doesn't go to jail, is maybe a little less likely to use drugs....the list can go on.

The only person that really hurts is someone who's already violating federal law...fuck em.

Post edited 8/25/10 7:02PM
#104  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to bobomonkey, #104:

You don't think there's a comparable cheap alternative to a tomato, when you include a tomato grown in Mexico as a comparable cheap alternative?

In any case, Economic study shows states with immigration have increased employment, wages, and productivity and finds little evidence of "Crowd out" of labor

Quotes from the economic letter
First, there is no evidence that immigrants crowd out U.S.-born workers in either the short or long run. Data on U.S.-born worker employment imply small effects, with estimates never statistically different from zero. The impact on hours per worker is similar. We observe insignificant effects in the short run and a small but significant positive effect in the long run. ...

Second, the positive long-run effect on income per U.S.-born worker accrues over some time. In the short run, small insignificant effects are observed. Over the long run, however, a net inflow of immigrants equal to 1% of employment increases income per worker by 0.6% to 0.9%. This implies that total immigration to the United States from 1990 to 2007 was associated with a 6.6% to 9.9% increase in real income per worker. That equals an increase of about $5,100 in the yearly income of the average U.S. worker in constant 2005 dollars. Such a gain equals 20% to 25% of the total real increase in average yearly income per worker registered in the United States between 1990 and 2007....

The third result is that the long-run increase in income per worker associated with immigrants is mainly due to increases in the efficiency and productivity of state economies....


link to NBER paper - anyone with a university connection ought to be able to download it.
#105  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 3 Zing!
Mongopwn
In reply to Chi_Mangetsu, #106:

Who the fuck decided to set up the system like this?
#107  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
bobomonkey
In reply to Chi_Mangetsu, #106:

Biased article much?
Records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act Request show Arizona agencies turned over 23,000 illegal immigrants to ICE over the past three years. Hundreds of them ended in up CCA facilities.

Hundreds, so at best we're talking 4.3% (999/23000) at worst 0.43% (100/23000) That doesn't look to me like the private prison industry is getting a huge boost.

Following the money trail on this one doesn't really work either.
According to campaign finance records, CCA executives and employees contributed more than $1,000 to the governor’s re-election campaign. The company’s political action committee and its lobbyists contributed another $60,000 to Brewer’s top legislative priority, Proposition 100, a sales tax to help avoid budget cuts to education.

Caroline Isaacs from the American Friends Service Committee, which advocates for social justice issues, said the money is evidence of influence the company has on the governor.
A prison company donated $60k to help promote a bill to fund schools, cool. Amazing that a solid majority of the population supported the same bill to the point that only one county voted no.
ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Arizona_Sales_Tax_Increase,_Proposition_100_%282010%29
#108  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Ditto
Chi_Mangetsu mulattobutts
thinkprogress.org/2010/09/02/brewer-prison-lobbyists/

Of course, since the update was reported by Rachel "Not Running For Election in Massachusetts--Seriously" Maddow, it's instantly librul propagandization and can be rightly ignored by our more resilient brickwalls.

Post edited 9/02/10 3:02PM
#109  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Funny
Chi_Mangetsu mulattobutts
tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/09/jan-brewer-speechless-on-headless-bodies-video.php

The collective reaction of the gathered members of the press at the end is nothing if not priceless.
#110  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
Exodusv Sponsor
In reply to bobomonkey, #102:
In reply to BigBen, #100:

Yes, if you increase price demand will fall, but if you increase wages it is offset. If the guy I'm paying to pick tomatoes spend the majority of his paycheck in my town rather than sending it back to Zacatecas, it helps my neighbor's bottom line. If the guy I hire isn't claiming 10 dependents and actually pays income tax, it helps our country. There are far more benefits to this than just giving an American a job that an illegal is filling.

1. Machines are built by someone, maintained by someone, etc... Parts are produced, raw materials obtained...there are still jobs. If you're arguing against automation, get in line with the buggy-whip manufacturers. Plus, some foods just can't be machine picked with the machines we have. You're asking for someone to come up with a way that isn't marginally more expensive than using illegals to do the work in the first place when they haven't been able to do so to date. Plus you're asking a farmer to shell out a substantial investment rather than small incremental price increases that they can pass on.

2. Most of the harvesting that is done by illegals is done here because it doesn't make sense to do it and import food. I'm sticking tomatoes because they are grown locally for a good reason. Like most hand-harvested produce, perishability, ease of damage, shipping costs, etc... all play into whether you can outsource a food product. Yes, I can get Mexican hot-house tomatoes in February....they cost me quite a bit more too. What foods generally get exported? Generally it's the ones that are machine harvested already

You're making two fundamentally incorrect assumptions.

First and foremost you are assuming that local goods are always the cheapest goods, insofar as food stuffs go. The next time you head to the grocer ask where the fresh fruit and vegetables come from. You might be surprised. The reason that American farmers rely on migrant labor and farm subsidies is not because they want to it is because it is cheaper for farmers in places like Mexico and Argentina to produce beef and grain of the same quality or better.

Mecanization does provide jobs, but until you make it cheaper to mechanize than to use migrant labor there is little incentive to do so. This of course hinges on the companies that make the farming implements being American companies that fabricate goods domestically, and other than John Deer I can't think of a company that manufactures farm equipment in the USA. Komatsu and Toyota products are starting dominate that particular market.
#111  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 1 Ditto
bobomonkey
In reply to Exodusv, #111:

As far as local food goes, generally it is perishability and the ease of damage that can dictate that for you. And I never said local foods were strictly cheaper to produce, but they do benefit in drastically lower shipping costs and reduced spoilage due to their proximity. Yes some imported foodstuff is cheaper, but they are working against the advantages of the local grower. As long as that advantage is greater than the foreign competition, the item will be produced locally. That fact goes far beyond the good sold in your grocery. If I can bring the same amount of tomatoes from Tijuana for half the price but half of the goods are bruised and unsellable, I see no benefit. I know there is quite a good amount of product in my local grocery that is imported (from out of state or country), however, an overwhelming majority of those items are either what I would call "durable" (machine harvested/processed) and/or not grown locally in any traditional manner (plantains, coffee, chocolate, etc...)

on the second point, you missed the point on that in entirety and are making an argument that supports my opinion. As long as it is cheaper to use labor, they will use labor (migrant or not). And that doesn't get past the problem that many manually harvested goods don't have a mechanized alternative available. Regardless, it also ignores the other labor markets (maids, construction workers, etc...) where job vacancies that American workers could fill would exist..

Post edited 9/07/10 5:39PM
#112  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to bobomonkey, #112:
That fact goes far beyond the good sold in your grocery. If I can bring the same amount of tomatoes from Tijuana for half the price but half of the goods are bruised and unsellable,

Overall, California and Florida account for ~75% of the U.S. Domestic Tomato Production If you include the rest of the southeast, that number is 90%.

Of the total of Domestic tomatoes produced in the US and Imported tomatoes, about 38% are imported and 62% are grown domestically. The predominant importer is Mexico. This is with trade restrictions already in place to prevent Mexican farmers from "dumping" (trade term of art) tomatoes in the US.

I live in Arkansas, I just checked. The tomatoes I bought yesterday were grown in Southern California. They seem fine.

Is your whole argument premised on the fact that the 1400 odd miles from where I live to Southern California is significantly more arduous than the 1500 odd miles* from Tiajuana to where I live?

* Actually I'm being generous, straight line distance from my city to LA is 1477 miles and straight line distance from Tijuana is 1425 miles.
#113  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Zing!
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to bobomonkey, #112:
where job vacancies that American workers could fill would exist..

ahem, Bullshit


Just right off the top of my head (and just recalling ecomics damn near 6 years ago). Where a legally imposed labor shortage doesn't force wages up, employers not only hire more workers overall, the have more resources to dedicate to new business ventures that will also result in more job creation.

Fundamentally it's the same principal as comparative advantage

The classical example of comparative advantage is where County 1 is more efficient at producing Good A, and Country 2 is more efficient at product Good B. Economics shows us both countries benefit if they are allowed to specialize. (typically the basic classroom example is wine and wool)

However, the counterintuitive part is that Economics has proven to a near mathematical certainty that even if Country 1 is more efficient at producing both Good A and Good B than Country 2, both countries still benefit if the countries specialize in the production of the good.

Post edited 9/07/10 6:21PM
#114  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  + 2 Zing!
NaraVara Forum Mod
In reply to BigBen, #114:

There are some flaws with Ricardian orthodoxy about comparative advantage. One is that you never actually know whether you have an advantage in an industry until you try your hand at it. Take the example of Japan with automotives. At first it would have been nuts for them to try and compete directly with American auto-sales. But with a healthy dose of state directed funding and protectionism, the industry was able to develop to a point where it became the largest in the world.

The second caveat is that advances in technology can change a country’s natural advantages at the drop of a hat and overspecializing your economy to where you import anything you’re not world-beating at means the whole world stands to miss out on advances that could have been. It’s not empirically provable because you are talking about counterfactuals, but consider that innovation happens as a response to constraint. Now suppose you have two countries that grow wheat and bake bread. One is a little better at baking (We’ll call it Bakersfield) than the other and the other has more fertile soil (Wheatopia) so the economist tells the Bakersfieldians to stop growing their own wheat, buy their wheat from the Wheatopians, and just bake more bread with the now cheaper wheat. But innovation happens as a response to adversity. If the soil isn’t good enough, people will try to innovate ways to get by. Suppose that if you had given the farmers in Bakersfield a little while to develop better agricultural practices and develop new strains of seeds that makes a crop better suited for growing in Bakersfield’s climate. Now suppose these techniques can be expanded to improve the agricultural output of countries throughout the world that haven’t been blessed by Wheatopia’s climate and conditions. The orthodox economist would just say that all these opportunity costs will be factored into the price of the wheat, but they won’t! it’s absurd to say that they would. Take Bakersfieldians off the farm for 2 or 3 generations and they’ll no longer have the human capital to even think about how to grow wheat or how it works. The knowledge will be lost to them and thinking up ways to improve the growing of wheat in their climate won’t even occur to them. In a world where there are many real costs associated with knowledge transfer and people jealously guard their market power, the likelihood of Wheatopians being eager to develop such practices, or of Wheatopians having the wherewithal to move to Bakersfield to grow wheat slims.

Bringing it back to immigration, there is a strong counterfactual case to be made that if we didn’t have such ready access to cheap labor, we’d probably be designing more and better ways to mechanize a lot of the processes we rely on cheap labor to do. We’d also probably move away from labor intensive crops to things that are easier to automate. A similar argument is made about how we do health-insurance. Most economists argue that the large premiums some health-insurance companies provide incentivize doctors to always use the latest and greatest technology rather than tried-and-true or good enough solutions as is the practice in most countries with universal systems. The theory is that generous repayments subsidize innovation (by making it easier to adopt new, cutting edge tech.) I contend by using India as an example. India is actually a powerhouse for medical innovation, but it doesn’t get attention because it’s not about shiny cutting-edge technology. A lot of it is process innovation. Because India’s medical industry operates in a severely resource constrained environment, the innovation that happens there is geared towards getting as much done as possible as cheaply as possible rather than doing the fanciest thing you can afford. Innovation happens, but it is geared towards expanding access and availability rather than creating new treatments and machinery. Now whether you would rather have a way to treat a problem that’s cheap enough for 300,000 more people to afford or to take fewer people and give them a more expensive way with a 3% smaller chance of complications is a trade off. But it’s an important thing to consider.

Of course, that also doesn’t help our job prospects as much and will exacerbate income inequality, to which I recommend large redistributionary schemes such as wage subsidies, first-rate public schools, free healthcare, and a guaranteed minimum income. You know, all the stuff Richard Nixon wanted to implement owing to him being the most progressive President we’ve had since. . .(whimper) Truman.


Post edited 9/08/10 3:32PM
#115  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
bobomonkey
In reply to BigBen, #114:


But we do have a minimum wage that by process would be raising the base wage of the workers in question.

And thank you for posting and article about what happens because we have illegal workers not what not having them would mean and not having the jobs they are doing done would do to the labor market.

Post edited 9/09/10 3:11PM
#116  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply  |  - 1 WTF
BigBen Forum Mod


Another interesting article describing the reality of our immigration system.
First, work-based visas should become the norm in immigration, not the exception. The United States issues about 1.1 million green cards a year and allocates roughly 85 percent to family members of American citizens or legal residents, people seeking humanitarian refuge and “diversity immigrants,” who come from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States.

The remaining 15 percent go to people who are immigrating for work reasons — but half of these are for workers’ spouses and children, leaving a mere 7 percent for so-called principal workers, most of whom are highly skilled. No other major Western economy gives such a low priority to employment-based immigration, and for good reason: these immigrants are the most skilled and least likely to be a burden on taxpayers.

With so few slots allocated to work-based green cards, wait times continue to grow. Immigrants typically enter on temporary visas and adjust to permanent status over time. But most green card categories have strict numerical limits that fall far short of the number of immigrants on temporary visas who wish to stay. The most recent data suggest that 1.1 million approved applicants are waiting for employment-based green cards. Immigrants from China and India are among the most adversely affected because, in general, no more than 7 percent of green cards can be allotted each year to applicants from any one country.

And we wonder why people who want to come here to work do so illegally.

and unlike most, the article actually recommends a concrete solution.
In place of our current system’s lotteries and “first-come, first-served” policies, the government should hold regular auctions where companies can bid for permits to bring in foreign workers. Employers would bid highest for the most-valued workers, creating a selection mechanism that wouldn’t rely on the judgment of bureaucrats or the paperwork skills of immigration lawyers.

Separate auctions would be run for high- and low-skilled workers, because permit prices would depend on prospective wages. Bringing low-skilled workers into the program is vital to stemming illegal immigration, as the current system’s lack of sufficient visas for the low-skilled is a main reason that people cross the border illegally.

These auctions would be more efficient than the current system because they would respond to changes in labor demand. When prices rose, the government could react by increasing the number of permits, better syncing immigration with the business cycle. Work-based immigration would rise with economic growth and fall with rising unemployment.

Finally, the auctions would provide the government with new revenue in an era of huge deficits. Some of that money might be used to offset costs incurred by states or localities with large numbers of immigrants, or to retrain American workers displaced by immigration.
#117  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
Chi_Mangetsu mulattobutts
In reply to BigBen, #117:

You KNOW idiots are going to start screaming "Slavery!" if that were to be proposed.
#118  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
Exodusv Sponsor
We could always just annex Mexico if all else fails.
#119  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
BigBen Forum Mod
In reply to Chi_Mangetsu, #118:

I didn't quote the part that addresses that.

The authors also suggest that work visas be "transportable." That is, not tied to a single employer like they are now. Because it prevents that type of situation where an employer can hold a visa status hostage over an employee's head.
#120  Posted 2 years ago  |  Reply
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